Responding to the NDC Ambition Gap – Bridging Science, Diplomacy and Implementation

The climate crisis is accelerating, with 2024 marking another “hottest year on record” and the first to exceed 1.5°C for a full calendar year. This moment of deepening urgency coincides with a critical milestone: 2025 marks a key test of the Paris Agreement, as countries are expected to submit new NDCs. While the Paris framework has mobilised alignment and institutional architecture, and helped lower expected temperature trajectories, its implementation is not keeping pace. Full delivery of existing net zero pledges could still limit warming to below 2°C – but this depends on credible action in the short and mid-term. At present, global efforts remain off track to meet both the 1.5°C and well below 2°C goals.

Momentum on NDCs and ambition is lacking. Few countries met the February submission deadline, and there is limited time left before the UNFCCC Synthesis Report in September. Neither the urgency nor the opportunity has received the political attention it demands. NDCs are more than climate pledges or technical box-ticking exercises—they are political, economic, and financial instruments that function as roadmaps for investment and national development strategies.

COP30 in Belém must be a turning point for both ambition and implementation. Achieving this will require diplomatic recalibration, stronger partnerships, and credible finance. There is still space to influence key countries ahead of COP30 and a clear need to strengthen delivery mechanisms – across both public and private sectors—beyond Belém.

This roundtable convenes leading voices in science, policy, diplomacy and business to explore: What constitutes credible and meaningful NDC ambition in 2025? How should we respond if collective ambition again falls short of the well below 2°C threshold? How can scientific urgency be translated into political momentum ahead of COP30?